How long its taken Laurie to see Gillard is finished

After Laurie Oakes questioned the value of watching my TV show I thought I'd manufacture a series of stories highlighting my superior judgement.

On the day Gillard became PM I put the question:

Is Julia Gillard finished? ... I’d tentatively conclude that Gillard is right on the cusp. One more bad poll and the drums will really start beating. But even now the early signs are that her trajectory is downwards, and dangerously so.

The next day I asked the same question:

Is Julia Gillard finished? ... I’d tentatively conclude that Gillard is right on the cusp. One more bad poll and the drums will really start beating. But even now the early signs are that her trajectory is downwards, and dangerously so.

Two days in and no such comment from Oakes.

Day 3 and I said:

Is Julia Gillard finished? This is the worst government in my memory. 

[...]

Day 265 and I wrote on March 15, this was a leader who looked dead on her feet:

Is Julia Gillard finished? ... I’d tentatively conclude that Gillard is right on the cusp. One more bad poll and the drums will really start beating. But even now the early signs are that her trajectory is downwards, and dangerously so.

[...]

Oakes still doubts Labor will replace her. I still insist, as I have every day, that it must.